If Donald Trump were to return to the White House, the cryptocurrency and digital asset sector could potentially see significant benefits, according to Compass Point Research & Trading. The firm highlighted Trump’s supportive stance on crypto, pointing out that his campaign is even accepting crypto donations. In a recent meeting with crypto miners, Trump discussed how the crypto industry could contribute to U.S. energy production, distribution, AI development, and data centers. Additionally, Trump expressed a desire for all BTC mining to occur within the U.S., showcasing his pro-crypto stance. This stance has been reflected in the Republican National Committee’s 2024 Platform, which aims to end the crackdown on crypto and block the development of a CBDC. Embracing self-custody of crypto assets and BTC mining, the platform aligns with Trump’s favorable view on the industry.
Trump selecting Senator J.D. Vance as his Vice-President candidate further reinforces his commitment to the crypto sector. Vance, who has previously campaigned on a pro-crypto platform, has initiated draft legislation addressing crypto regulation by the SEC and CFTC. This legislation is anticipated to be more industry-friendly compared to the FIT21 Act, which received bipartisan support in the House. With Vance also holding a significant amount of BTC, the prospects of crypto legislation becoming law under a Trump/Vance administration seem promising, according to Compass Point’s analysis. This could pave the way for comprehensive crypto legislation to be enacted into law in 2025 or 2026, shifting the landscape for the industry.
Bipartisan support is highlighted as a crucial factor in improving the outlook for crypto policy. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow is working on a draft crypto bill to grant the CFTC authority over digital assets. Teaming up with House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry, who successfully navigated the FIT21 Act through the House, indicates the potential for bipartisan cooperation on crypto regulation. Stabenow’s goal of pushing the bill out of committee before the August break underscores the significance of bipartisan collaboration in advancing crypto legislation. With the momentum building around comprehensive crypto policy, the potential for significant legislative changes in the near future is becoming more feasible.
Looking ahead to 2025, Compass Point suggests that a Trump administration with a Republican-controlled Congress could have a two-year window to pass crypto legislation. The passage of FIT21 and Stabenow’s efforts to move a bill out of committee signal a shift towards comprehensive crypto legislation. The odds of such legislation becoming law in the 119th Congress are deemed better than 60%, according to Compass analysts. This potential change in legislative landscape underscores the importance of the upcoming election and the impact it could have on the direction of crypto regulation.
In the event of a change in administration, a new SEC Chair could bring about significant shifts in the enforcement actions and resolution of outstanding cases related to crypto. Hester Peirce, a potential candidate for the position, is known for her supportive stance on crypto. A change in SEC leadership could potentially lead to a more favorable environment for the industry, potentially easing regulatory pressures and expediting the resolution of ongoing cases such as the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase.
A potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could have a favorable impact on the cryptocurrency and digital asset sector, potentially leading to the enactment of comprehensive crypto legislation. With bipartisan support and collaboration, the prospects for significant legislative changes in the industry are on the rise, paving the way for a more favorable regulatory environment under a Trump administration.